The Trillion Dollar Deadline

How will companies pay for the mountain of dodgy debt maturing soon?

Nearly $1 trillion in risky debt comes due from 2011 to 2015, and even if the credit crunch is long past, companies will likely struggle to refinance it says CreditSights. Expect to see more battles like the current one between General Motors and its creditors.

It’s not just the size of the looming maturities that poses a problem. The central issue is that many of the buyers who helped build the mountain of debt have disappeared. The shadow banking system, the mix of hedge funds and structured investment vehicles, has collapsed, writes Chris Taggert, analyst at the credit research company. Companies with junk debt will have to fight with sturdy, investment-grade companies for survival.

Part of the blame lies with private equity firms like the Blackstone Group and Apollo Management. During their heyday, they bought companies by loading them up with debt. Those bank loans and bonds were sold to other investors, such as hedge funds and collateralized loan obligations that often borrowed to buy them. The days are gone “when one real dollar could easily buy $5 or more dollars of leveraged finance debt,” Taggert writes. Many maturities will come from these companies whose capital structures were layered with debt in 2006, during “the peak of the credit craze.”

Some $936 billion in high-yield bonds and loans will come due from 2011 to 2015. That’s 96% of all leveraged loans and 59% of the entire junk-bond index, CreditSights says.

As a result, there will likely be a rise in fights between creditors and companies similar to the current battle over General Motors debts. Debt swaps, in which companies offer to buy back debt at a steep discount, are suddenly popular with companies trying to escape bankruptcy.

Another $176 billion in credit lines also fall due between 2010 and 2015. Banks are likely to cut credit lines further as long as the economy slumps, much as Bank of America and others have for their credit card holders. Smaller lines of credit can have a ripple effect, Taggert writes: companies push to extend their debt and shorten due dates on what’s owed them. 

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Jobless Could Hit 4 Million - Predicts Bank Adviser

Unemployment could double to four million unless the Government takes drastic action to boost public spending and create new jobs, a Bank of England official has warned.

In a dire outlook, Monetary Policy Committee member David Blanchflower also said the recession could be deeper and longer than the Bank previously predicted.

He added that the Government needed to tackle the soaring numbers of young people out of work by raising the school leaving age sooner and pushing more people into higher education.

Doom and gloom: The Bank of England's predictions that UK output would tumble 3.5 per cent could prove 'too optimistic'.

Speaking at a Westminster conference, Mr Blanchflower called for the Treasury to launch a near-£90billion fiscal stimulus, including tax cuts and investment in new schools and hospitals. This would help create 750,000 new jobs, he said.

'This is not about people being lazy,' he added. 'There aren't jobs. In six months this is going to be the biggest issue in every MP's constituency.'

David Blanchflower says the recession could be deeper and longer than initially expected..

Mr Blanchflower has proved one of the most prescient members of the MPC, calling for interest rate cuts a year before the rest of the committee.

Last summer he forecast unemployment would hit two million by Christmas - a prediction that was fulfilled in January.

Last month the Bank of England predicted UK output would tumble 3.5 per cent this year, before recovering 1.2 per cent in 2010.

But this is likely to prove too optimistic, Mr Blanchflower said yesterday. As a result, predictions that jobless ranks will peak at three million are also likely to be too rosy.

'(With) any forecast of unemployment and output, the likelihood in a recession is we have undercooked it,' he told MPs. A surge in unemployment to four million would mean the total surpassing the heights reached in the deep recession of the 1980s, when joblessness peaked at nearly 3.3million.

Mr Blanchflower's fiscal stimulus plan includes 'large cuts' in income taxes and national insurance contributions for the lowpaid and young people.

In a paper co-written with David Bell of the University of Stirling, he said the Treasury should plough billions into construction projects by health authorities, universities and housing associations.

The raising of the education leaving age to 18 should be brought forward to this year to prevent legions of school leavers seeking jobs when there are few available.

This summer more than 600,000 people will leave schools and universities and embark on a desperate search for work. Already 40 per cent of the unemployed are under 25.

Mr Blanchflower said young people's entire lives would be affected if they were unable to find work now.

Honda workers to get pay cut

Carmaker Honda is asking its workers to accept a pay cut for at least a year to ensure the survival of its UK factories.

The Japanese firm is sending letters to 3,600 workers at its Swindon plant stressing the dire state of car manufacturing.

The letters do not state the size of the cut, but a similar arrangement at Toyota has seen both working hours and pay cut by 10 per cent at its two UK plants.

The average wage for lineworkers is around £22,000. The Unite union said negotiations were yet to be held on the issue.

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